Will Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka in Test Cricket this time?
January 27, 2014
Syed Munazir Hussain
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| A much more confident team this year Dhaka Tribune |
With
talks predominantly surfacing around the drafted proposal by the 'Big Three'
interest on the upcoming test series between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka might
have lost some attention but BCB's new found wisdom of declaring that they will
stand against the Big Three will help cricket lovers of the country to breathe
a sigh of relief. So let's take a look at what realistic chance Bangladesh has
at beating Sri Lanka.
Beating
Sri Lanka in test cricket is no longer a matter of dreaming beyond capabilities
as it once was. The recently concluded test series against New Zealand showed
the depth of batting that Bangladesh has especially in home conditions. The 600
plus innings was scored against this very Sri Lankan bowling attack last year.
And in between Sri Lanka has only played against Pakistan although very
recently. The recently concluded NCL
matches after the drawn New Zealand series have given our players some practice
of the longer version of the game. Gone are the days of Muralitharan who would
rip through Bangladesh. In addition the retirement of Dilshan from test cricket
makes both teams look closer than ever in terms of capability.
Let's
look into the stats of both teams before calling Sri Lanka the overwhelming favourite.
Please
note the probable 11’s have been selected based on the announced squads prior
to the series.
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| A Bangladeshi Tiger bdnews24 |
Batting:
Probable Sri Lanka 11
|
Sl
|
Players
|
Mat
|
Runs
|
100s
|
Career Ave
|
last 3 yr Avg
|
last 1 yr Avg
|
|
1
|
9
|
475
|
0
|
29.68
|
29.68
|
30.55
|
|
|
2
|
6
|
391
|
0
|
32.58
|
32.58
|
51.16
|
|
|
3
|
120
|
10,652
|
33
|
56.35
|
53.51
|
67.44
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
708
|
2
|
47.20
|
47.20
|
57.16
|
|
|
5
|
141
|
11,033
|
32
|
49.47
|
32.73
|
45.40
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
2,174
|
2
|
45.29
|
49.90
|
84.33
|
|
|
7
|
55
|
2,061
|
4
|
31.22
|
32.92
|
40.25
|
|
|
8
|
50
|
713
|
0
|
12.96
|
12.56
|
1.80
|
|
|
9
|
10
|
105
|
0
|
11.66
|
11.66
|
17.75
|
|
|
10
|
17
|
93
|
0
|
7.75
|
7.75
|
NA
|
|
|
11
|
5
|
31
|
0
|
5.16
|
5.16
|
3
|
The opening pair
of Sri Lanka seems relatively inexperienced after losing Dilshan to retirement
from test cricket. Sangakara and Jayawardane seem to continue to carry the
weight of the Sri Lankan batting with 65 centuries in between them. Jayawardane
seems to be on the fall if you look at his batting average for the last 3 years
where it has fallen to 32.73 from 49.47 although a century against Pakistan in
the recent test series shows that he still has more to offer. Mathews and
Chandimal have been impressive against Pakistan so the Sri Lankan middle order
looks to be improving as a unit after Samaraweera left.
Probable
Bangladesh 11:
|
Sl
|
Players
|
Mat
|
Runs
|
100
|
Career
Ave
|
last 3
|
last 1
|
|
1
|
Tamim
Iqbal
|
30
|
2221
|
4
|
38.29
|
35.27
|
42
|
|
2
|
Shamsur
Rahman
|
NA
|
|||||
|
3
|
Marshall
Ayub
|
2
|
106
|
26.5
|
26.5
|
26.5
|
|
|
4
|
Mominul
Haque
|
5
|
584
|
2
|
83.42
|
83.42
|
83.42
|
|
5
|
Mushfiqur
Rahim
|
36
|
2078
|
2
|
32.46
|
42.63
|
52.79
|
|
6
|
Shakib
Al Hasan
|
32
|
2105
|
2
|
36.92
|
48.73
|
45
|
|
7
|
Nasir
Hossain
|
12
|
859
|
1
|
45.21
|
45.21
|
48.37
|
|
8
|
Mahmudullah
|
17
|
865
|
1
|
27.9
|
18.33
|
6.4
|
|
9
|
Sohag
Gazi
|
8
|
260
|
1
|
21.66
|
21.66
|
28.75
|
|
10
|
Robiul
Islam
|
7
|
93
|
13.28
|
13.28
|
24
|
|
|
11
|
Al-Amin
|
1
|
0
|
Tamim Iqbal looks
better than any of the Sri Lankan opening batsmen at the moment especially
after he has shown that he can bat to survive if required against New Zealand.
Shamsur Rahman is likely to debut given his performance against NZ in ODI
cricket and his 267 in first class cricket. Imrul Kayes, who has been batting
at number 3 in first class cricket, might play only if Ayub is dropped. I don't
see that happening as Ayub has not been given a long enough trial period yet.
Batting positions number 4, 5, 6 and 7 make Bangladesh's batting look fearsome
with averages of 83.42, 52.79, 45 and 48.37 in the last one year. Mahmudullah
and Sohag Gazi are capable lower order batsmen as well.
Comparing both
sides batting in terms of overall career average summations, Sri Lanka is
slightly ahead, even though Bangladesh has an opener with no runs yet, with an
aggregate of 329 runs against 325 runs. So to me both teams batting look more
or less the same at this point. If I had to choose I would choose the
Bangladeshi attack over Sri Lanka.
Bowling:
Sri Lanka
|
Sl
|
Bowlers
|
Mat
|
Wkts
|
5w
|
Ave
|
SR
|
Avg Last
3 yr
|
Avg.
Last 1 Year
|
|
1
|
50
|
214
|
17
|
29.98
|
64.5
|
26.44
|
30.21
|
|
|
2
|
10
|
33
|
0
|
34.12
|
64.4
|
34.12
|
30.88
|
|
|
3
|
17
|
32
|
0
|
53.75
|
92.1
|
54.75
|
39.58
|
|
|
4
|
5
|
8
|
0
|
73.12
|
107.2
|
73.12
|
22.4
|
|
|
5
|
Ajantha Mendis
|
17
|
64
|
3
|
34.2
|
66.4
|
80.33
|
87.5
|
Herath seems to
be the only bowler who is capable of taking 5 wickets with 17 such hauls in his
career. Eranga and Pradeep are improving bowlers although the career strike
rates of Pradeep and Lakmal look well below par taking 107 balls and 92 balls
per wicket respectively. Mendis who has been recently called up has appalling
figures for the last 3 years with an average of 80 runs per wicket, which only
worsened in the last year to 87.5.
Bangladesh
| Sl. |
Bowlers
|
Mat
|
Wkts
|
5w
|
Ave
|
SR
|
Avg Last
3 yr
|
Avg
Last 1 yr
|
|
1
|
Shakib
Al Hasan
|
32
|
113
|
10
|
32.62
|
68.10
|
33.6
|
33.18
|
|
2
|
Sohag
Gazi
|
8
|
34
|
2
|
35.32
|
74.00
|
35.32
|
36.68
|
|
3
|
Robiul
Islam
|
7
|
23
|
2
|
33.82
|
63.30
|
28.65
|
22.05
|
|
4
|
Al-Amin
|
1
|
1
|
58.00
|
96.00
|
58.00
|
58.00
|
|
|
5
|
Rubel
|
18
|
26
|
1
|
78.00
|
117.00
|
73.64
|
74.2
|
|
6
|
Razzak
|
11
|
23
|
67.13
|
121.40
|
66.42
|
71.8
|
|
|
7
|
Mahmudullah
|
17
|
28
|
1
|
45.07
|
78.50
|
77.16
|
47.5
|
Bangladesh seems
to have more bowlers (5) who have taken 5 wickets hauls than Sri Lanka. Shakib and Gazi will be leading the
Bangladeshi bowlers and Mahmudullah will probably be picked over the repetitively
tried Razzak. Robiul will be leading the pace bowlers and has been improving
his career average every year. Rubel and Razzak have proved to be liabilities
for the test team in the last few years so I wouldn’t pick them unless others
are injured.
Both teams have
inexperienced pace bowlers but Sri Lanka's pace attack looks better than
Bangladesh. On the other hand Bangladesh's spin bowling attack looks better
than Sri Lanka. In the end it seems that the team whose pace bowlers will take
more wickets will have a greatr chance of winning.
The most likely outcome
in this test series seems to be a 0-0 draw. However there will be dew and
movement for seam bowlers in the morning sessions so if the wickets have a bit
of life in the first hours of the test matches the pace bowlers will get enough
opportunities to create impact. And in that respect Sri Lanka has a slightly
upper hand. Bangladeshi pacers will have to start taking wickets like Shakib
has asked for if Bangladesh actually wants to win.
Both captains have a big challenge at hand Photo credits Mumit M/Dhaka Tribune
Source:
Stats taken from cricinfo statsguru
Last 1 year= Jan 24 2013 till Jan 24 2014
Last 3 years= Jan 24 2011 till Jan 24 2014
